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Omicron and 3rd wave of pandemic in India: What experts, scientific projections have predicted so far

 Published on Dec 29, 2021 11:18 AM IST | Written by Poulomi Ghosh

Many countries in the world are witnessing the 4th peak of the pandemic as Omicron is replacing Delta as the most dominant variant. India has so far seen two surges. 

A 44% jump in daily Covid cases on December 29 signals the overall increase in Covid cases that experts, scientific projections forecast following the outbreak of Omicron, the latest variant of SARS-CoV-2. According to all these predictions, India will see a rise in Covid-19 cases, which may be termed as the third wave, but its impact will not be as severe as that of the first and the second waves. According to experts, the wave is also likely to be shortlived. The surge is predicted to take place at the beginning of 2022.

Here are the 4 things that experts said

> A tracker developed by researchers at the University of Cambridge predicted that the new infections will begin to rise from the last week of December.

> An IIT-Kanpur study has pointed out that the third wave of the pandemic in India may peak by February 3, 2022. The rise in the cases, according to this prediction, should have started by December 15.

> The National Covid-19 Supermodel Committee projected that the third wave is expected to peak early next year. The members said the daily caseload is expected to increase once Omicron starts replacing Delta as the dominant variant.

> South African doctor Angelique Coetzee who first identified the Omicron variant recently said India will see a surge in Covid cases, primarily driven by the Omicron variant but the infection will be mild. "India will see a surge in Omicron-driven COVID-19 cases and simultaneously there will be a high-positivity rate. But hopefully, the majority of the cases will be as mild as what we are seeing here in South Africa," Coetzee said.

Here are the worldwide trends

> Most countries are seeing the 4th wave of the Covid pandemic, being driven by Omicron.

> South Africa, it is believed, has started to overcome the wave as the number of Omicron cases in the country is now declining

> In the US and the UK, Omicron has replaced Delta to be the dominant strain.

> US and UK are witnessing a record surge in the number of cases and hospitalisations.